2013年2月5日 星期二

喬納斯艾歷森:如何解決塞車問題


喬納斯艾歷森:如何解決塞車問題


嗨,我今天要談的是塞車 也就是所謂的交通擁塞 塞車非常普遍 世界各地的城市都有這個問題 仔細想想其實令人驚訝 畢竟城市之間不同之處甚多 像典型的歐洲城市 都有稠密的都市中心,良好的公共交通 但大部分道路狹小 另一方面,我們看看美國城市 它自己動起來了,好言歸正傳,美國的城市裡 許多道路散佈在大片土地上 幾乎沒有公共交通工具 再來是初嶄頭角的世界級城市 當中混雜各種交通工具 各種土地使用模式,而且相當分散 市中心卻多數人口稠密 世界各地的交通規劃人員 採用過不同措施:以密集或分散形式規劃城市 建大量道路,或大力發展公共交通 規劃很多單車徑,或提供更多資訊 措施不勝枚舉,但似乎都不得要領
一兩二歐元不是甚麼大錢 相對於停車費和日常開支而言 所以你可能以為司機們 對這種小額收費無動於衷 你錯了 一兩歐元足以令百分之二十的汽車 在尖峰時間從路上消失 百份之二十,你或許覺得這是個大數字 但仍有百份之八十的問題未解決,對嗎? 因為仍然有百份之八十的汽車在路上 這也是錯的 因為交通問題不是綫性現象 當你超過一個容量臨界點之後 交通擁塞會開始很快地惡化 幸運的是,反之亦然 如果你可以稍為減少交通量 擁塞問題減輕的速度比你想像中更快 道路收費於2006年1月3號在斯德哥爾摩實施 這裏第一張是斯德哥爾摩 一條典型街道的照片,在2號拍的 開始收費的第一天它變成這樣 這就是路上減少百分之二十的車輛以後 看起來的樣子 實際上,塞車情況大為改善
怎會這樣?有甚麼原因? 試循這方向想。誰改變了? 那百份之二十消失了的司機 肯定會在某方面感到不滿 他們去了那裏?如果我們明白這點 或許便可以明白為何人們喜愛這措施 我們很多交通工具上 進行大型的訪問調查 目的是要找出誰改變了,和這些人去了那裏? 原來受訪者自己也不知道 由於某些原因 那些司機都認為他們按自己一貫的方式駕駛 為甚麼會這樣?這是因為人們的駕駛路線 並非如你想像那般穩定 每一天,人會做新的決定,人會變 環繞他們的世界也在變 每一天這些決定會產生細微作用 促使他們避開繁忙時間駕車 人往往不會覺察這些作用 他們自己甚至不知道自己已改變

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Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion, namely road congestion. Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon. It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world, which is a little bit surprising when you think about it. I mean, think about how different cities are, actually. I mean, you have the typical European cities, with a dense urban core, good public transportation mostly, not a lot of road capacity. But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities. It's moving by itself, okay. Anyway, the American cities: lots of roads dispersed over large areas, almost no public transportation. And then you have the emerging world cities, with a mixed variety of vehicles, mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersedbut often with a very dense urban core. And traffic planners all around the world have triedlots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities, lots of roads or lots of public transport or lots of bike lanes or more information, or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.
Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money, I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc., so you would probably expect that car drivers wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge. You would be wrong. One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars disappear from rush hours. Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think, but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right? Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic. Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that once you reach above a certain capacity thresholdthen congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly. But fortunately, it also works the other way around. If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion will go down much faster than you might think. Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholmon January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2. The first day with the congestion charges looked like this. This is what happens when you take away 20 percent of the cars from the streets. You really reduce congestion quite substantially.
Now these traffic figures are really exciting and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,but I would say that the most surprising slide here I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one. This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm, and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it. Seventy percent of the population didn't want this. But what happened when the congestion charges were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more. No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges, meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that: 70 percent of the population in Stockholm want to keep a price for something that used to be free.
Okay. So why can that be? Why is that? Well, think about it this way. Who changed? I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared, surely they must be discontent in a way. And where did they go? If we can understand this, then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this. Well, so we did this huge interview survey with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out who changed, and where did they go? And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter) For some reason, the car drivers are -- they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do. And why is that? It's because that travel patterns are much less stable than you might think. Each day, people make new decisions, and people change and the world changes around them, and each dayall of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly away from rush hour car driving in a way that people don't even notice. They're not even aware of this themselves.

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